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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Hayward is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 64%, edge +9.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL

Will Hayward

Carlton

+9.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
+9.8% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
1.1 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.9% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap +9.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.9%61.9%64.1%1.61+9.8%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Will Hayward Over 0.5 Goals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Will Hayward has been on fire lately, helping his team set up plenty of scoring chances. He's shown he can find the goal, and with Carlton winning contested balls by almost nine a game, they'll keep the pressure on Geelong. This means more opportunities for Hayward to get his shot. The Geelong Cats are giving up a fair number of points lately, allowing over 84 on average. Even though they're strong at home, they could struggle against Carlton's solid form. The main risk here is how closely matched these teams are, but Hayward has a good chance to score at least once.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Will Hayward averaged 12.2 disposals, 1.6 goals and 4.4 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

12.2
Disposals
1.6
Goals
4.4
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Will Hayward recorded 6 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions6112
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide15085
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS11231
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows11050
16 Aug 24Essendon16373
9 Aug 24Collingwood14341
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide11130
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs8122
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions17261
13 Jul 24North Melbourne8033
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Goals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Will Hayward (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Hayward is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.8% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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