Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Ashcroft is Over 2.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 60%, implied 71%, edge +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:37AM UTC
AFL

Will Ashcroft

Brisbane Lions

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Tackles Over 2.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+0.5% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 21°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
3.7 Tackles
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.0% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +0.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Tackles72.0%60.2%71.4%1.66+0.5%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Will Ashcroft Over 2.5 Tackles (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Will Ashcroft to make over 2.5 tackles are looking solid at -250. Our numbers suggest he's been on fire lately, averaging 2 tackles when most players typically hit around 1.5. Plus, he's showing a great knack for getting into the action, which is crucial against a team like the Sydney Swans, who can be tough to pin down. The biggest risk here is that the match could turn into a high-scoring affair, which might mean fewer tackles overall. Still, with Ashcroft's recent form and the way he's been playing, there's a very good chance he can step up and hit that mark. Let's see how he does!

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Will Ashcroft averaged 22.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

22.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.2
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Will Ashcroft has cleared 22.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o22.590%
o23.590%
o25.580%
o26.580%
o28.580%
o29.580%
o31.550%
o32.520%
o34.510%
o35.510%
o37.510%
o38.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Will Ashcroft is averaging 29.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

29.6
Disp · Overall
0.8
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Will Ashcroft recorded 30 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans30153
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats22031
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS27055
7 Sep 24Carlton20062
24 Aug 24Essendon300153
17 Aug 24Collingwood26061
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS29091
4 Aug 24St Kilda18020
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS21012
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans20034
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Tackles 2.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
07 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Ashcroft is Over 2.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.