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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Stewart is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 56%, implied 64%, edge +7.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Tom Stewart

Geelong Cats

+7.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
+7.5% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
21.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.6% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap +7.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.6%56.2%64.1%1.78+7.5%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Tom Stewart Over 18.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Fremantle Dockers will face the Geelong Cats, and Tom Stewart is in a great spot to rack up disposals. He has been solid lately, and our numbers suggest he has a good chance to go over 18.5 disposals in this game. The Dockers tend to struggle with their defense, which could give Stewart more opportunities to collect the ball. One thing to watch is that both teams are closely matched, so it might be a tight contest. Stewart has shown he can handle the pressure, but if the game turns out to be more defensive than expected, it could make hitting that number more challenging. Still, it looks promising for his performance today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Tom Stewart's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 18.5
How many disposals does Tom Stewart average?

Tom Stewart's disposals line is 18.5.

Disposals 17.5
How many disposals does Tom Stewart average?

Tom Stewart's disposals line is 17.5.

Disposals 16.5
How many disposals does Tom Stewart average?

Tom Stewart's disposals line is 16.5.

Season averages (2024)

Tom Stewart averaged 21.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 6.1 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

21.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
6.1
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Tom Stewart has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.5100%
o15.590%
o17.590%
o18.570%
o20.540%
o21.540%
o23.530%
o24.530%
o26.50%
o27.50%
o29.50%
o30.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Tom Stewart is averaging 20.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

20.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Stewart recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions22052
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11020
17 Aug 24St Kilda21045
10 Aug 24Fremantle19071
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows28055
27 Jul 24North Melbourne32091
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs26185
12 Jul 24Collingwood26094
6 Jul 24Hawthorn260115
29 Jun 24Essendon23085
Quick answers:How many disposals does Tom Stewart average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 18.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Stewart is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.5% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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