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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Liberatore is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 79%, implied 70%, edge +9.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Tom Liberatore

Western Bulldogs

+9.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+9.4% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 3 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
25.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 79.4% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap +9.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals79.4%69.9%1.26+9.4%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs) Over 21.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to gritty midfield battles, Tom Liberatore is a name that demands attention. Heading into the clash against the Sydney Swans, Liberatore's recent form is screaming 'back me!' With an average of 23.2 disposals in his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, consistently racking up possessions. His disposal efficiency sits at a solid 65.6%, showcasing both quantity and quality. Against the Swans, he's even better, averaging 24.2 disposals. Liberatore's ability to find the footy in contested situations (8.2 contested possessions on average) and spread it effectively around the ground makes him a prime candidate to surpass the 21.5 disposal line. Bet confidently on Liberatore to thrive in the midfield battleground and hit those overs.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Liberatore averaged 23.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

23.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.8
Marks
5.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Tom Liberatore recorded 25 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn25034
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS24105
18 Aug 24North Melbourne23036
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows24038
2 Aug 24Melbourne19028
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans22025
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats23027
13 Jul 24Carlton20024
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide22025
29 Jun 24North Melbourne25154
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals 21.5 Over -233 ✗ MISS
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
07 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Liberatore is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.4% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Sydney Swans on Friday 3 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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