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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Atkins is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 72%, implied 75%, edge +11.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Tom Atkins

Geelong Cats

+11.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+11.9% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
87 in 100
Predicted
20.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 87.1% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +11.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.1%72.0%75.2%1.39+11.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Tom Atkins Over 14.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Both Fremantle and Geelong Cats have strong performances, but Fremantle's recent form stands out. They've won 7 of their last 10 games and have been dominating, winning by almost 29 points on average in their last 12 matches. This could mean plenty of chances for Tom Atkins to rack up disposals, especially since Fremantle tends to allow a fair amount of play from the opposition. Tom Atkins has been a solid performer, and betting on him to get over 14.5 disposals looks promising. However, Geelong Cats' average points before half-time is quite high, which could mean a fast-paced game. If the game gets away from Atkins, he might not get enough touches. Still, with how well he's played lately, this bet feels like a good opportunity.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Tom Atkins's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 14.5
-123 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 8 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Tom Atkins average?

Tom Atkins's disposals line is 14.5, best over price -123 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 8 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 15.5
-123 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 8 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Tom Atkins average?

Tom Atkins's disposals line is 15.5, best over price -123 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 8 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 13.5
-123 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 8 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Tom Atkins average?

Tom Atkins's disposals line is 13.5, best over price -123 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 8 of his last 10 games.

Season averages (2024)

Tom Atkins averaged 17.1 disposals, 0.0 goals and 1.5 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

17.1
Disposals
0.0
Goals
1.5
Marks
6.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Tom Atkins has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o13.5100%
o15.580%
o16.580%
o18.560%
o19.540%
o20.530%
o22.510%
o23.50%
o25.50%
o26.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Tom Atkins is averaging 17.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Atkins recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions12016
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide18024
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles22029
17 Aug 24St Kilda17011
10 Aug 24Fremantle18027
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows19057
12 Jul 24Collingwood17024
6 Jul 24Hawthorn11024
29 Jun 24Essendon19024
21 Jun 24Carlton16005
Quick answers:How many disposals does Tom Atkins average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -103 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -149 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 15.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Atkins is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.9% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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