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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Toby Nankervis is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 73%, edge +1.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:40AM UTC
AFL

Toby Nankervis

Richmond

+1.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
+1.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
16.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.1% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap +1.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.1%73.0%1.35+1.1%

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AI Analysis

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Toby Nankervis (Richmond) Over 13.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Toby Nankervis is a prime candidate for the upcoming clash between Richmond and Carlton at the MCG. Nankervis has been a consistent force in recent games, averaging a solid 14.2 disposals in his last five home games. Facing Carlton, he's even more reliable, boasting an average of 15.6 disposals in his last five matchups against them. His recent form is impressive, with a hit rate of 3 out of 3 in home games and a solid 16 out of 20 in his last overall outings. With the model predicting him to hit 16.7 disposals, Nankervis seems primed to surpass the 13.5 line comfortably. Trust in Nankervis to be a midfield powerhouse and rack up the possessions on his home turf.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Toby Nankervis averaged 16.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 3.3 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

16.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
3.3
Marks
5.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Toby Nankervis recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS15046
18 Aug 24Hawthorn18066
11 Aug 24St Kilda18052
3 Aug 24North Melbourne160311
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide13022
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS22044
6 Jul 24Fremantle26147
30 Jun 24Carlton17123
15 Jun 24Hawthorn11045
6 Jun 24Adelaide Crows13047
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 13.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 12.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Toby Nankervis (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Toby Nankervis is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 4 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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