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The latest Bet Better model pick for Shai Bolton is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 74%, implied 82%, edge +4.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
AFL

Shai Bolton

Fremantle

+4.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+4.8% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
87 in 100
Predicted
22.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 86.8% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap +4.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals86.8%74.0%82.0%1.35+4.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Shai Bolton Over 15.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Shai Bolton has been on fire lately, showing he can rack up a lot of disposals. With the Fremantle Dockers facing the Geelong Cats at Optus Stadium, it feels like a good moment for him to shine. Our numbers suggest he is a strong favorite to get over 15.5 disposals in this game. One thing to consider is how closely matched the two teams can be, which could impact Bolton's chances. Still, with his current form, it feels like a solid pick for him to hit that number. Just remember, nothing is guaranteed in sports, but this looks promising!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Shai Bolton's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 15.5
-112 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Shai Bolton average?

Shai Bolton's disposals line is 15.5, best over price -112 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 14.5
-112 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Shai Bolton average?

Shai Bolton's disposals line is 14.5, best over price -112 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Handballs 7.5
How many disposals does Shai Bolton average?

Shai Bolton's handballs line is 7.5.

Marks 1.5
How many disposals does Shai Bolton average?

Shai Bolton's marks line is 1.5.

Disposals 18.5
-112 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Shai Bolton average?

Shai Bolton's disposals line is 18.5, best over price -112 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 17.5
-112 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Shai Bolton average?

Shai Bolton's disposals line is 17.5, best over price -112 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 16.5
-112 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Shai Bolton average?

Shai Bolton's disposals line is 16.5, best over price -112 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Season averages (2024)

Shai Bolton averaged 16.8 disposals, 1.5 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

16.8
Disposals
1.5
Goals
3.8
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Shai Bolton has cleared 12.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o12.5100%
o13.5100%
o15.5100%
o17.570%
o19.550%
o21.530%
o23.520%
o24.520%
o26.510%
o28.50%
o30.50%
o32.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Shai Bolton is averaging 19.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.8
Disp · Overall
0.8
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Shai Bolton recorded 13 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS13173
18 Aug 24Hawthorn12313
11 Aug 24St Kilda11212
3 Aug 24North Melbourne12123
28 Jul 24Collingwood21022
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide17112
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS18212
6 Jul 24Fremantle16472
30 Jun 24Carlton17021
15 Jun 24Hawthorn15124
Quick answers:How many disposals does Shai Bolton average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs 7.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 1.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 18.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Shai Bolton (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shai Bolton is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.8% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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