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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Durham is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 93%, implied 75%, edge +17.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:44AM UTC
AFL

Sam Durham

Essendon

+17.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+17.8% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
22.9 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 93.0% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +17.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals93.0%75.2%1.08+17.8%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Durham (Essendon) Over 15.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

In the upcoming clash between the Gold Coast Suns and the Essendon Bombers, all eyes are on Sam Durham to shine bright on the field. Durham's recent form paints a picture of a player hungry for possession. Averaging a solid 17.2 disposals in his last five away games, Durham has been a consistent force in the midfield. His ability to find space and deliver the ball cleanly is evident in his 65.0% disposal efficiency. Facing the Suns, against whom he averages 18.7 disposals, Durham is poised to exploit their vulnerabilities and surpass the 15.5 disposal line. With a model prediction of 22.9 disposals and a strong historical hit rate, backing Durham to go over 15.5 disposals is a smart play for punters looking to capitalize on his form and potential impact in this crucial matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Sam Durham averaged 21.4 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

21.4
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.0
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Sam Durham recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions22053
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans16044
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS23145
4 Aug 24Fremantle25065
27 Jul 24St Kilda21151
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows27135
13 Jul 24Melbourne21144
5 Jul 24Collingwood25074
29 Jun 24Geelong Cats180410
23 Jun 24West Coast Eagles29132
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Durham (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Durham is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.8% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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