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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Draper is Over 2.5 on Clearances.
On Clearances, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 72%, implied 81%, edge +3.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:37AM UTC
AFL

Sam Draper

Brisbane Lions

+3.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Clearances Over 2.5 -417 (1.24) · $100→$124
+3.5% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
4.3 Clearances
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 84.1% · the book's price implies 80.6% · gap +3.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Clearances84.1%72.0%80.6%1.39+3.5%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Sam Draper Over 2.5 Clearances (-417)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

For Sam Draper to get over 2.5 clearances tonight, he needs to be active and involved in the game. Our numbers show he's likely to see a lot of play around the ball, with a strong rating for making tackles and getting ground balls. The Sydney Swans will want to control the game, and that could mean more chances for Draper to rack up those clearances. Draper has been performing well, and with a solid rating in getting those tackles, it points to him being a key player in the midfield. The main risk is that Brisbane is tough competition, and both teams are closely matched, which could impact how much he's able to influence the game. But overall, it looks good for him to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Sam Draper averaged 11.2 disposals, 0.7 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

11.2
Disposals
0.7
Goals
3.1
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sam Draper has cleared 9.5 disposals in 40% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.540%
o10.530%
o11.530%
o12.520%
o13.520%
o14.510%
o15.50%
o16.50%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sam Draper is averaging 9.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

9.0
Disp · Overall
0.8
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Sam Draper recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions9121
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans11132
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS11355
4 Aug 24Fremantle9145
27 Jul 24St Kilda9134
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows14151
13 Jul 24Melbourne20041
5 Jul 24Collingwood15150
29 Jun 24Geelong Cats9012
23 Jun 24West Coast Eagles17043
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Clearances 2.5 Over -417 ✓ HIT
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Clearances 2.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Draper is Over 2.5 on Clearances. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.5% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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