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The latest Bet Better model pick for Roan Steele is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 54%, implied 70%, edge +2.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Roan Steele

Collingwood

+2.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+2.2% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
15.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.6% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +2.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.6%53.9%70.4%1.86+2.2%

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AI Analysis

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Roan Steele (Collingwood) Over 12.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Roan Steele is primed to shine in the upcoming clash against the Western Bulldogs. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of stellar, averaging a hefty 17 disposals per game in his last five away matches. What really stands out is his consistency, boasting a remarkable 100% hit rate in exceeding the 12.5 disposal line during these games. Steele's ability to impact the game is evident, with averages of 10 kicks and 7 handballs in away fixtures, showcasing his dual threat as both a distributor and a ball-winning midfielder. Facing the Bulldogs, against whom he's been even more prolific with 21 disposals in their recent encounters, Steele seems poised to continue his dominance and rack up the possessions. With his current hot streak and the odds in our favor, backing Steele to go Over 12.5 disposals is a smart play for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Roan Steele - AFL Disposals market.

MarksSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Roan Steele - AFL Marks market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 12.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 11.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks 2.5 Over -323 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Roan Steele (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Roan Steele is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.2% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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