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The latest Bet Better model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 72%, edge +1.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Reilly O'Brien

Adelaide Crows

+1.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
+1.8% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
12.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.3% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap +1.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.3%—72.5%1.35+1.8%

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AI Analysis

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Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Reilly O'Brien is poised to shine in the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market with a prediction of 12.8, showcasing a 1.8% edge. His recent performances, averaging 10.8 disposals in home games and 12.4 overall, suggest he can surpass the 9.5 line comfortably. With solid metrics like contested possessions (6.8), kicks (6), and metres gained (143.2) in his last five home games, O'Brien's consistency and matchup history against Collingwood bode well for exceeding expectations. Despite a slight dip in uncontested possessions (3.6), his overall hit rate of 9/10 and recent home games hit rate of 4/5 indicate a player in form. Betting on O'Brien to go over 9.5 disposals appears a prudent choice for this upcoming clash at Adelaide Oval.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Reilly O'Brien averaged 11.5 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

11.5
Disposals
0.1
Goals
2.3
Marks
3.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Reilly O'Brien recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans11032
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide6010
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs11043
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats15017
28 Jul 24Hawthorn14053
19 Jul 24Essendon14052
13 Jul 24St Kilda13017
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions8025
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS8045
1 Jun 24Hawthorn9028
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.8% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 4 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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