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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Paul Curtis is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 89%, edge +0.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Paul Curtis

North Melbourne

+0.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12) · $100→$112
+0.0% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
1.5 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 89.3% · the book's price implies 89.3% · gap +0.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.3%89.3%1.12+0.0%

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AI Analysis

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Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a goal scorer in the AFL, you want a player in form, and Paul Curtis of North Melbourne fits the bill perfectly. Over his last five away games, Curtis has been a goal-snagging machine, averaging a solid 2.2 goals per game. His accuracy in front of the big sticks sits at an impressive 70.0%, showcasing his ability to capitalize on his scoring opportunities. Facing off against the Western Bulldogs, Curtis has historically performed well, averaging 1.5 goals in his last five matchups against them on their turf. With a streak of 7 consecutive successful games away from home and hitting the back of the net 7 times in those matches, Curtis is a reliable choice to split the middle and bag at least one goal in this upcoming clash. Betting on him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart play given his recent form and track record against the Bulldogs.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Paul Curtis averaged 11.3 disposals, 1.3 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

11.3
Disposals
1.3
Goals
3.6
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Hawthorn), Paul Curtis recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Hawthorn9123
18 Aug 24Western Bulldogs7032
10 Aug 24West Coast Eagles15373
3 Aug 24Richmond12053
27 Jul 24Geelong Cats13116
21 Jul 24Carlton12374
13 Jul 24Sydney Swans15024
6 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS10144
29 Jun 24Western Bulldogs14235
22 Jun 24Melbourne11046
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals Pending
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Goals Pending

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About This Player

Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Paul Curtis is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.0% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 6 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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