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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 71%, edge +2.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:37AM UTC
AFL

Patrick Dangerfield

Geelong Cats

+2.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+2.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
1.3 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.9% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +2.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.9%61.9%71.4%1.61+2.5%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Patrick Dangerfield Over 0.5 Goals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

At the MCG, the Geelong Cats face off against the Carlton Blues. Patrick Dangerfield has been a key player for Geelong, and our numbers suggest he has a solid chance to score at least one goal in this match. Carlton has conceded an average of 78.8 points per game over their last 12 matches, while Geelong has been scoring 101.5 points, showing they can find the goal. One thing to watch is that Geelong has been breaking even on contested balls lately, which means they could struggle a bit against Carlton's strong performance in that area. Still, Dangerfield is known for stepping up in critical moments, and with Geelong's scoring ability, he's likely to find the back of the net.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Patrick Dangerfield averaged 20.1 disposals, 0.5 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

20.1
Disposals
0.5
Goals
3.4
Marks
3.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Patrick Dangerfield has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.580%
o12.560%
o14.560%
o16.560%
o17.550%
o19.550%
o21.530%
o23.510%
o24.510%
o26.510%
o28.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Patrick Dangerfield is averaging 14.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

14.4
Disp · Overall
2.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Patrick Dangerfield recorded 24 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions24124
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide24040
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles25192
17 Aug 24St Kilda20143
10 Aug 24Fremantle20133
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows21026
27 Jul 24North Melbourne12112
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs17126
12 Jul 24Collingwood22032
6 Jul 24Hawthorn14013
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 12.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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