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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Cripps is Over 23.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 56%, implied 69%, edge +4.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:50AM UTC
AFL

Patrick Cripps

Carlton

+4.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 23.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+4.2% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
26.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.6% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +4.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.6%55.9%69.4%1.79+4.2%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Patrick Cripps Over 23.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Patrick Cripps has been a standout player lately, and with the game at the MCG, he's likely to shine even brighter. He's been getting a lot of touches and has a solid chance to go over 23.5 disposals. Carlton is on a roll, winning 8 of their last 10 matches, and they have been strong in contested ball situations, which means Cripps will have plenty of opportunities to get the ball. Geelong Cats can be tough, but they have been giving up a fair number of points and disposals lately. The risk here is that Geelong's defense is known to clamp down at times, potentially making it harder for Cripps to find space. Still, with his recent form, he should be able to get the job done.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Season averages (2024)

Patrick Cripps averaged 28.8 disposals, 0.7 goals and 2.6 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

28.8
Disposals
0.7
Goals
2.6
Marks
5.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Patrick Cripps recorded 31 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions31113
25 Aug 24St Kilda30049
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles35032
11 Aug 24Hawthorn25027
3 Aug 24Collingwood30144
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide25025
21 Jul 24North Melbourne29037
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs28258
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS33204
30 Jun 24Richmond40154
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 23.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 22.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 21.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Patrick Cripps (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Cripps is Over 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.2% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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