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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oscar McDonald is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 71%, implied 80%, edge +2.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:51AM UTC
AFL

Oscar McDonald

Fremantle

+2.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+2.5% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Mar 2022). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
83 in 100
Predicted
13.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.5% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +2.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.5%71.0%80.0%1.41+2.5%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Oscar McDonald Over 9.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Fremantle Dockers face the Geelong Cats, and Oscar McDonald has been showing up big time lately. He's been involved in a lot of plays, which usually means he'll get plenty of chances to rack up disposals. Our numbers show he's been averaging way more than 9.5 disposals, making this bet a strong choice. One thing to think about is that the Cats can put pressure on players, and McDonald will have to handle that. Still, with the way he's been performing, it seems likely he'll get those disposals. Overall, betting on him to go over 9.5 disposals looks promising for this matchup at Optus Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Oscar McDonald's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5
-110 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 7 of the last 10 games

Oscar McDonald's disposals line is 9.5, best over price -110 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 7 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 10.5
-110 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 7 of the last 10 games

Oscar McDonald's disposals line is 10.5, best over price -110 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 7 of his last 10 games.

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Oscar McDonald has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.580%
o11.570%
o12.570%
o13.540%
o14.530%
o16.530%
o17.520%
o18.520%
o19.510%
o20.510%
o21.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Oscar McDonald is averaging 14.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

14.0
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Mar 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Oscar McDonald recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions10031
24 Mar 22Western Bulldogs9040
17 Mar 22Richmond15060
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 9.5 Over -189 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Oscar McDonald (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oscar McDonald is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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