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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Wiltshire is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 60%, implied 68%, edge +2.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
AFL

Oliver Wiltshire

Geelong Cats

+2.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -208 (1.48) · $100→$148
+2.7% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
11.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.3% · the book's price implies 67.6% · gap +2.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.3%59.7%67.6%1.68+2.7%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Oliver Wiltshire Over 9.5 Disposals (-208)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers are on a great run, winning seven of their last ten games, and they are dominating with an average victory margin of nearly 29 points in their recent matches. This momentum could help Oliver Wiltshire find plenty of opportunities to get the ball, especially since Fremantle's game plan often leads to high disposal counts. On the other hand, Geelong Cats are no slouches either, coming in with solid performances and strong first-half scores. However, their average lead at quarter-time is just over 4 points, which means this game could be close and competitive. It's worth noting that even with a good chance of going over 9.5 disposals, the risk is that both teams can limit each other's chances.

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Pick History & Track Record

Oliver Wiltshire's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5
-108 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 games

Oliver Wiltshire's disposals line is 9.5, best over price -108 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Goals 0.5

Oliver Wiltshire's goals line is 0.5.

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Oliver Wiltshire has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.560%
o11.550%
o12.530%
o13.530%
o14.530%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.510%
o19.510%
o20.510%
o21.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Oliver Wiltshire is averaging 13.0 disposals per game over his last 5, including his recent form against Fremantle.

13.0
Disp · Overall
10.0
Disp · vs Fremantle
0.8
Goals · Overall
2.0
Goals · vs Fremantle
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
15 Aug 26 Geelong Cats @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals Pending

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About This Player

Oliver Wiltshire (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Wiltshire is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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