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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Hollands is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 60%, implied 69%, edge +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Oliver Hollands

Carlton

+3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+3.0% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
17.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.5% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +3.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.5%60.2%69.4%1.66+3.0%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Oliver Hollands Over 14.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Oliver Hollands has been playing well lately, and he's getting plenty of chances to rack up disposals. He's averaging more than 14.5 disposals per game over the last few matches, and Carlton has been winning a lot, which usually means more ball for him. The Geelong Cats have struggled a bit in their recent games, allowing opponents to score quite a bit, which could lead to more opportunities for Hollands to get involved. The main risk here is that Geelong tends to break even on contested ball, which means they can hold their own and could limit his touches. Still, with Carlton's good form and Hollands' recent performances, it looks like he has a solid shot to go over that total.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Oliver Hollands averaged 14.0 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

14.0
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.8
Marks
3.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Oliver Hollands recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10045
25 Aug 24St Kilda21065
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles24047
11 Aug 24Hawthorn22074
3 Aug 24Collingwood12165
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide14042
21 Jul 24North Melbourne17161
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs16025
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS17022
30 Jun 24Richmond7014
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 13.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Marks 3.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Oliver Hollands (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Hollands is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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