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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Dempsey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 60%, implied 66%, edge +5.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Oliver Dempsey

Geelong Cats

+5.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -192 (1.52) · $100→$152
+5.8% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.6% · the book's price implies 65.8% · gap +5.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.6%59.8%65.8%1.67+5.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Oliver Dempsey Over 0.5 Goals (-192)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a roll lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and often finishing strong. They've been scoring an impressive average of almost 45 points before half-time across their last 12 matches. Oliver Dempsey could easily find the goal with this kind of momentum, especially since Fremantle has been outscoring their opponents by nearly 29 points per game during this stretch. Geelong Cats are no slouches either, averaging about 56 points before half-time in their last 12 games. Both teams are competitive, making it tricky to predict outcomes. The biggest risk here is that Dempsey will face a tough defense from Geelong, which can make scoring challenging. Still, Dempsey has a solid chance to put a goal on the board given Fremantle's current form.

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Pick History & Track Record

Oliver Dempsey's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Goals 0.5

Oliver Dempsey's goals line is 0.5.

Disposals 17.5

Oliver Dempsey's disposals line is 17.5.

Season averages (2024)

Oliver Dempsey averaged 17.4 disposals, 0.9 goals and 4.4 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

17.4
Disposals
0.9
Goals
4.4
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Oliver Dempsey has cleared 13.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o13.5100%
o14.5100%
o16.590%
o18.580%
o19.570%
o21.570%
o23.530%
o24.520%
o26.520%
o28.510%
o29.50%
o31.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Oliver Dempsey is averaging 24.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

24.4
Disp · Overall
1.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Oliver Dempsey recorded 15 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions15142
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide15062
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles21192
17 Aug 24St Kilda20120
10 Aug 24Fremantle20152
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows18021
27 Jul 24North Melbourne18325
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs5103
12 Jul 24Collingwood171104
6 Jul 24Hawthorn23032
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Marks 3.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -278 ✗ MISS
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Dempsey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.8% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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