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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Watson is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 63%, implied 68%, edge +6.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Nick Watson

Hawthorn

+6.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
+6.5% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
2.1 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.6% · the book's price implies 68.0% · gap +6.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.6%62.5%68.0%1.60+6.5%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Nick Watson Over 1.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nick Watson has been making waves lately and has a solid chance to score over 1.5 goals against Fremantle. Both teams have shown they can get the ball inside 50 plenty of times, with Fremantle averaging about 6.7 more inside 50s than Hawthorn in their recent games. This means there will be chances for Watson to find the goalposts. However, there's a risk here since both teams are quite competitive, with each winning 7 of their last 10 games. Despite that, Watson's ability to create opportunities makes this a promising pick. If he gets the right chances, he could easily find the back of the net more than once.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Nick Watson averaged 10.8 disposals, 1.4 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

10.8
Disposals
1.4
Goals
3.1
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Nick Watson recorded 9 disposals and 3 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide9312
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs11463
24 Aug 24North Melbourne15341
18 Aug 24Richmond12343
11 Aug 24Carlton17062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS4025
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows10213
20 Jul 24Collingwood12312
13 Jul 24Fremantle12132
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats9015
Quick answers:How many disposals does Nick Watson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 1.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 9.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Nick Watson (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Watson is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.5% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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