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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Blakey is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 82%, edge +0.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
AFL

Nick Blakey

Sydney Swans

+0.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+0.2% Edge
Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:05AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
25.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.2% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap +0.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.2%82.0%1.22+0.2%

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AI Analysis

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Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) Over 20.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop in the AFL, you want someone who's not just consistent but also capable of unleashing game-changing performances. Nick Blakey fits that bill perfectly. The young Swan has been a midfield dynamo in recent outings, averaging a solid 23 disposals over his last five away games, comfortably exceeding the bookies' line of 20.5. His ability to find the footy in contested situations, coupled with a sharp disposal efficiency of 70.9%, makes him a reliable accumulator in the middle. Facing St Kilda, against whom he's been even more prolific with 19.4 disposals on average, Blakey is poised to exploit his recent form and surpass expectations once again. With a current hit streak and stats pointing in his favor, backing Blakey to go over 20.5 disposals is a smart play for punters looking to snag some value in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Season averages (2024)

Nick Blakey averaged 20.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.9 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

20.9
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.9
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Nick Blakey recorded 17 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions17081
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide21060
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS15022
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows322141
16 Aug 24Essendon19021
9 Aug 24Collingwood24072
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide19050
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs25071
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions18040
13 Jul 24North Melbourne17072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 20.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 21.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 21.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Blakey is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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