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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nathan O'Driscoll is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 65%, implied 62%, edge +14.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
AFL

Nathan O'Driscoll

Fremantle

+14.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
+14.3% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 13°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
17.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.4% · the book's price implies 62.1% · gap +14.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.4%64.6%62.1%1.55+14.3%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Nathan O'Driscoll Over 13.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Nathan O'Driscoll has been on a roll lately, gathering more disposals than usual. He's been hitting over 13.5 disposals consistently, and our numbers show he's a strong favorite to do it again. He's been getting more shots at goals and also making more marks inside the 50, which means he's involved in the game a lot. The risk here is that Fremantle is up against Geelong, a tough opponent that can challenge players. If O'Driscoll faces a lot of pressure, it might be harder for him to reach that mark. But given his recent form, it's a good opportunity to back him to go over 13.5 disposals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Nathan O'Driscoll's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 13.5
-108 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Nathan O'Driscoll's disposals line is 13.5, best over price -108 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 12.5
-108 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Nathan O'Driscoll's disposals line is 12.5, best over price -108 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 11.5
-108 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Nathan O'Driscoll's disposals line is 11.5, best over price -108 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 10.5
-108 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Nathan O'Driscoll's disposals line is 10.5, best over price -108 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 14.5
-108 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Nathan O'Driscoll's disposals line is 14.5, best over price -108 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Nathan O'Driscoll has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.580%
o12.570%
o13.570%
o15.560%
o16.540%
o18.530%
o19.510%
o21.510%
o22.510%
o24.50%
o25.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Nathan O'Driscoll is averaging 12.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.8
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Nathan O'Driscoll recorded 20 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide20144
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS5011
15 Jul 23Collingwood7011
17 Jun 23GWS GIANTS14062
10 Jun 23Richmond15034
27 May 23Melbourne15044
20 May 23Geelong Cats200102
13 May 23Sydney Swans13050
6 May 23Hawthorn20081
29 Apr 23Brisbane Lions14143
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -112 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 13.5 Over -154 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 12.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Nathan O'Driscoll (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nathan O'Driscoll is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.3% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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