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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mykelti Lefau is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 65%, edge +7.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:21AM UTC
AFL

Mykelti Lefau

Richmond

+7.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -182 (1.55) · $100→$155
+7.6% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 9:35AM
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.1% · the book's price implies 64.5% · gap +7.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals72.1%64.5%1.39+7.6%

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AI Analysis

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Mykelti Lefau (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-182)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Mykelti Lefau to snag over 0.5 goals in the clash between Adelaide Crows and Richmond Tigers, the numbers are painting a promising picture. Lefau has been in fine form, averaging 1 goal in his last 5 away games, with a solid 66.7% goal accuracy to boot. His recent performances show he's not just kicking goals but also getting involved in the play, with an average of 3.2 score involvements per game. Facing Adelaide, where he's been averaging 0.5 goals in the last 5 matchups, Lefau seems poised to capitalize on his current streak. With his sharp shooting and involvement in creating scoring opportunities, all signs point to Lefau making his mark on the scoreboard once again. It's a bet with a solid statistical foundation and the potential for a handsome payoff.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Mykelti Lefau averaged 7.2 disposals, 1.4 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 10 games in 2024.

7.2
Disposals
1.4
Goals
3.1
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (1 Jun 24 vs Geelong Cats), Mykelti Lefau recorded 7 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
1 Jun 24Geelong Cats7231
25 May 24Essendon5222
18 May 24Brisbane Lions5121
11 May 24Western Bulldogs11030
5 May 24Fremantle8253
24 Apr 24Melbourne9132
14 Apr 24West Coast Eagles12385
7 Apr 24St Kilda7122
31 Mar 24Sydney Swans3221
24 Mar 24Port Adelaide5012
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -182 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -167 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Goals Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals Pending

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About This Player

Mykelti Lefau (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mykelti Lefau is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.6% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 8 August at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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