Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Murphy Reid is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 67%, edge +6.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Murphy Reid

Fremantle

+6.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -204 (1.49) · $100→$149
+6.9% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
12.2 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.0% · the book's price implies 67.1% · gap +6.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks74.0%61.7%67.1%1.62+6.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

See his full recent form

Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Murphy Reid Over 9.5 Kicks (-204)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle is on a hot streak, winning seven of their last ten games and dominating by almost 29 points each match lately. However, Geelong Cats have also been impressive, often getting off to strong starts with an average lead of over 4 points at quarter-time. This matchup could be closer than it seems, but Murphy Reid has been getting plenty of kicks lately. We think Reid will go over 9.5 kicks in this game. With Fremantle's strong first-half scoring, they likely will be moving the ball a lot, giving Reid chances to rack up those kicks. While Geelong's defense is solid, Reid has shown he can step up in big games. So, while there's a risk with how close the teams are, we feel good about this pick.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Murphy Reid's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Kicks 9.5

Murphy Reid's kicks line is 9.5.

Marks 1.5

Murphy Reid's marks line is 1.5.

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Murphy Reid has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.5100%
o15.590%
o17.590%
o19.570%
o20.570%
o22.560%
o24.540%
o25.540%
o27.520%
o29.50%
o30.50%
o32.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Murphy Reid is averaging 21.0 disposals per game over his last 5, including his recent form against Geelong Cats.

21.0
Disp · Overall
19.7
Disp · vs Geelong Cats
0.2
Goals · Overall
2.0
Goals · vs Geelong Cats
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 1.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 21.5 Over -179 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 20.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Murphy Reid (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Murphy Reid is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.9% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.