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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitchell Edwards is Over 1.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 60%, implied 70%, edge +0.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:37AM UTC
AFL

Mitchell Edwards

Geelong Cats

+0.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Tackles Over 1.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+0.7% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
2.5 Tackles
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.1% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +0.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Tackles71.1%59.5%70.4%1.68+0.7%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Mitchell Edwards Over 1.5 Tackles (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mitchell Edwards needs to make at least two tackles tonight for this bet to win. He's been playing well, and the stats show he has a solid chance to get those tackles in this matchup. Geelong has been giving up a lot of scoring opportunities, allowing their opponents to get inside 50 more often. This means Edwards will likely have chances to step up and make those tackles. Carlton has been winning the contested ball, which usually leads to more physical play and more tackling opportunities. However, there's the risk that if the game is too one-sided, he might not get the chance to make the tackles needed. Still, with the way both teams play, it looks like Edwards can get those tackles tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Mitchell Edwards has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.560%
o11.560%
o12.530%
o13.520%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.510%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Mitchell Edwards is averaging 12.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.6
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Tackles 1.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Mitchell Edwards (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitchell Edwards is Over 1.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.7% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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