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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Miles Bergman is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 61%, edge +9.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Miles Bergman

Port Adelaide

+9.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -156 (1.64) · $100→$164
+9.9% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
18.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.9% · the book's price implies 61.0% · gap +9.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.9%61.0%1.41+9.9%

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AI Analysis

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Miles Bergman (Port Adelaide) Over 15.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Miles Bergman hitting the Over 15.5 disposals mark against Hawthorn, the stats paint a compelling picture. Looking at his last five away games, Bergman has been a reliable contributor, averaging 13.6 disposals per game, comfortably exceeding the proposed line. His recent form showcases his ability to find the footy, with a solid balance of kicks (9.2) and handballs (4.4), indicating versatility in his playing style. Moreover, his disposal efficiency of 64.0% on the road demonstrates his composure under pressure. Against Hawthorn specifically, he's been even more impactful, averaging 12.5 disposals in their past encounters. With an implied probability of 61.0% and a model prediction of 18.2 disposals, Bergman presents a strong case to snag this bet. Expect him to continue his trend of solid performances and split the middle with ease at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Miles Bergman averaged 15.7 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.5 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

15.7
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.5
Marks
2.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Miles Bergman recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans15051
13 Sep 24Hawthorn15031
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats170101
25 Aug 24Fremantle14062
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows15064
10 Aug 24Melbourne180102
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans140113
26 Jul 24Carlton16076
20 Jul 24Richmond15081
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS18096
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Miles Bergman (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Miles Bergman is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.9% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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