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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Sellwood is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 60%, implied 59%, edge +12.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:27AM UTC
AFL

Michael Sellwood

Western Bulldogs

+12.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 3.5 -145 (1.69) · $100→$169
+12.4% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
4.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.6% · the book's price implies 59.2% · gap +12.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks71.6%59.9%59.2%1.67+12.4%

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AI Analysis

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Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs: Michael Sellwood Over 3.5 Marks (-145)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows are up against the Western Bulldogs, and Michael Sellwood has been showing some real talent lately. He's been getting a lot of scoring opportunities, racking up more than double the typical number of launches when he plays. Plus, Sellwood isn't just scoring; he's also getting plenty of ground balls, which is great for setting up more chances. Betting on Sellwood to get over 3.5 marks seems smart given how much potential he's been showing. The biggest risk is that the match could be tight, and the Western Bulldogs might have a strong defense. Still, the way Sellwood has been performing gives this bet a solid chance of hitting.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Michael Sellwood - AFL Disposals market.

MarksSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Michael Sellwood - AFL Marks market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks Pending
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Michael Sellwood (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Sellwood is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.4% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 5 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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