Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Rowell is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 62%, edge +14.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:36AM UTC
AFL
Matt Rowell
Gold Coast SUNS
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 22.5
-161 (1.62) · $100→$162
+14.7% Edge
Collingwood Magpies
@
Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
76 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 76.4% · the book's price implies 61.7% · gap +14.7%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 76.4% | — | 61.7% | 1.31 | +14.7% |
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Matt Rowell (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 22.5 Disposals (-161)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to reliable ball-winning prowess, Matt Rowell is the man to watch for the Gold Coast Suns as they host the Collingwood Magpies at People First Stadium. With an average of 25.4 disposals over his last five home games and a stellar 72.5% disposal efficiency, Rowell has been a standout performer in the midfield. Against Collingwood specifically, he's maintained an impressive average of 23.8 disposals. His ability to find the footy both in contested situations and uncontested play makes him a versatile threat on the field. Given his recent form and consistency, backing Rowell to surpass 22.5 disposals in this matchup is a solid bet with a high probability of hitting. Trust in Rowell to rack up the possessions and lead the Suns to victory.
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Season averages (2024)
Matt Rowell averaged 23.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 1.4 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Matt Rowell recorded 29 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 24 Aug 24 | Richmond | 29 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Melbourne | 16 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Essendon | 32 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 Aug 24 | West Coast Eagles | 30 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 27 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 21 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 20 Jul 24 | GWS GIANTS | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 Jul 24 | Port Adelaide | 16 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 24 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Collingwood | 20 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 23 Jun 24 | Fremantle | 23 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Matt Rowell (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Rowell is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.7% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 4 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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