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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 58%, implied 54%, edge +16.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:08AM UTC
AFL

Massimo D'Ambrosio

Hawthorn

+16.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -116 (1.86) · $100→$186
+16.4% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 16°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
20.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.1% · the book's price implies 53.8% · gap +16.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%58.3%53.8%2.00+16.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Massimo D'Ambrosio Over 17.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle and Hawthorn both have solid recent form, winning seven of their last ten games. Fremantle tends to get the ball inside 50 more often, which could give their players more chances to contribute. This makes it a great opportunity for Massimo D'Ambrosio to rack up disposals. He's been involved in the game lately, and with Fremantle's attack, he could easily surpass 17.5 disposals. The risk here is that both teams can struggle with contested ball, meaning the game might get tight at times. Still, the way Fremantle pushes forward should give D'Ambrosio plenty of opportunities to receive the ball and make his impact felt. Overall, this bet has a good chance, and it should be an exciting matchup to watch.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Massimo D'Ambrosio averaged 21.1 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

21.1
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.0
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Massimo D'Ambrosio recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide18045
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs32092
24 Aug 24North Melbourne31252
18 Aug 24Richmond26071
11 Aug 24Carlton31062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS22250
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows11025
20 Jul 24Collingwood26264
13 Jul 24Fremantle8030
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats16172
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 17.5 Over -116 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 16.5 Over -167 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.4% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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