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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark O'Connor is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 76%, implied 83%, edge +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
AFL

Mark O'Connor

Geelong Cats

+2.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
+2.4% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
86 in 100
Predicted
14.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 85.7% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +2.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals85.7%76.0%83.3%1.32+2.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Mark O'Connor Over 9.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Mark O'Connor has been shining lately, and Fremantle's recent form makes this an exciting matchup. With Fremantle winning 7 of their last 10 games and consistently scoring 28.7 points more than their opponents, they're in great shape. O'Connor's stats suggest he should get over 9.5 disposals, especially with Fremantle's strong performance overall. However, Geelong Cats have also been solid, averaging 55.7 points before half-time and being up by 4.1 points at quarter-time. This means they could put some pressure on O'Connor. Still, the odds are in his favor, and with Fremantle's momentum, it feels like he will hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Mark O'Connor's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5
-122 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Mark O'Connor's disposals line is 9.5, best over price -122 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Marks 1.5

Mark O'Connor's marks line is 1.5.

Disposals 11.5
-122 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Mark O'Connor's disposals line is 11.5, best over price -122 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 10.5
-122 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Mark O'Connor's disposals line is 10.5, best over price -122 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Season averages (2024)

Mark O'Connor averaged 11.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

11.9
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.8
Marks
3.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Mark O'Connor has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.570%
o11.570%
o12.560%
o13.560%
o14.550%
o15.550%
o16.520%
o17.520%
o18.520%
o19.520%
o20.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Mark O'Connor is averaging 13.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

13.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (29 Jun 24 vs Essendon), Mark O'Connor recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
29 Jun 24Essendon6031
21 Jun 24Carlton9032
9 Jun 24Sydney Swans16092
1 Jun 24Richmond15032
16 May 24Gold Coast SUNS12041
10 May 24Port Adelaide14031
27 Apr 24Carlton6024
20 Apr 24Brisbane Lions16156
14 Apr 24North Melbourne15195
6 Apr 24Western Bulldogs5010
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mark O'Connor (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark O'Connor is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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