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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark Blicavs is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 74%, implied 82%, edge +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL

Mark Blicavs

Geelong Cats

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+1.4% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
83 in 100
Predicted
14.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 83.4% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap +1.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.4%73.6%82.0%1.36+1.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Mark Blicavs Over 9.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Mark Blicavs has been on a roll, showing up strong in recent games. He's been getting a lot of disposals, and with Fremantle winning 7 of their last 10 matches, this could be a great time for him to shine. The bet is for him to get over 9.5 disposals, which feels likely given his recent form and the way games have been going. However, the Geelong Cats have also been strong, leading at quarter-time on average. This means the first part of the game could be competitive, making it a bit tricky for Blicavs to rack up those disposals early on. Still, with his performance lately, this bet looks promising for a solid chance to hit.

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Pick History & Track Record

Mark Blicavs's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Mark Blicavs's disposals line is 9.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 11.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Mark Blicavs's disposals line is 11.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 10.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Mark Blicavs's disposals line is 10.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Marks 1.5

Mark Blicavs's marks line is 1.5.

Season averages (2024)

Mark Blicavs averaged 14.2 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

14.2
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.2
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Mark Blicavs has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.590%
o11.580%
o12.560%
o13.540%
o14.530%
o15.530%
o16.530%
o17.530%
o18.520%
o19.510%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Mark Blicavs is averaging 14.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

14.2
Disp · Overall
0.8
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Mark Blicavs recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions9122
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide15071
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles21062
17 Aug 24St Kilda10030
10 Aug 24Fremantle16055
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows17012
27 Jul 24North Melbourne10055
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs14026
12 Jul 24Collingwood12044
6 Jul 24Hawthorn16134
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 10.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark Blicavs is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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