Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 72%, edge +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 17.5
-263 (1.38) · $100→$138
+0.6% Edge
Geelong Cats
@
Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
73 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 73.0% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap +0.6%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 73.0% | — | 72.5% | 1.37 | +0.6% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 1/5 |
| Last 10 games | 2/10 |
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Luke Ryan (Fremantle) Over 17.5 Disposals (-263)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Luke Ryan (Fremantle) Over 17.5 Disposals. It was priced at -263 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Luke Ryan's lines for Fri 11 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Disposals 17.5
Luke Ryan's disposals line is 17.5, best over price -115 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.
Disposals 16.5
Luke Ryan's disposals line is 16.5, best over price -115 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.
Season averages (2024)
Luke Ryan averaged 24.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 8.6 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Luke Ryan has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o14.5100%
o15.590%
o17.580%
o18.560%
o20.540%
o21.520%
o23.50%
o24.50%
o26.50%
o27.50%
o29.50%
o30.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Luke Ryan is averaging 19.0 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Luke Ryan recorded 21 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 25 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 21 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 17 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 18 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 36 | 0 | 15 | 1 |
| 4 Aug 24 | Essendon | 30 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| 27 Jul 24 | West Coast Eagles | 17 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Melbourne | 24 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 15 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Richmond | 23 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 26 | 0 | 8 | 1 |
| 23 Jun 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 18 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
Luke Ryan (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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