Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Logan McDonald is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 61%, implied 62%, edge +8.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:31AM UTC
AFL
Logan McDonald
Sydney Swans
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 9.5
-164 (1.61) · $100→$161
+8.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions
@
Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
71 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 70.8% · the book's price implies 62.1% · gap +8.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 70.8% | 61.3% | 62.1% | 1.63 | +8.7% |
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Logan McDonald (Sydney Swans) Over 9.5 Disposals (-164)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Logan McDonald is in the kind of form that makes a line of 9.5 disposals look genuinely thin. His L5 home average sits at 12.8 disposals — well clear of the number — and he's hit this line in four of his last five games at the SCG, currently riding a two-game home streak and an impressive four-from-four run overall. The model projects him at 11.9 disposals, a 2.4-disposal buffer over the line that translates to an 8.7% edge against the implied 62.1% probability baked into the $1.61 price.
What underpins the confidence is the quality of his home work: 8.4 kicks and 228.8 metres gained per game at this venue, with a 74.3% disposal efficiency suggesting he's not just accumulating — he's moving the ball cleanly. The Brisbane matchup history is a slight concern at 7.8 disposals overall, but his home-ground comfort and current momentum make the over a genuine edge worth backing.
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Season averages (2024)
Logan McDonald averaged 10.4 disposals, 1.4 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Logan McDonald recorded 1 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 28 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Sep 24 | Port Adelaide | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 7 Sep 24 | GWS GIANTS | 11 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 24 Aug 24 | Adelaide Crows | 17 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 Aug 24 | Essendon | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 9 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 13 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 16 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Logan McDonald (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Logan McDonald is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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