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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Liam Baker is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 54%, implied 72%, edge +2.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
AFL

Liam Baker

West Coast Eagles

+2.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
+2.0% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
18.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.9% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap +2.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.9%54.4%71.9%1.84+2.0%

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AI Analysis

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Liam Baker (West Coast Eagles) Over 14.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Liam Baker from the West Coast Eagles is standing out like a beacon in the night sky. His recent form is as hot as a Perth summer, averaging a whopping 19 disposals over the last five home games, well above the 14.5 line set by the bookies. Against Hawthorn, Baker has been even more prolific, averaging 16.8 disposals in their last five matchups. With a current hit streak of 8 at home and a flawless 8/8 hit rate, Baker seems to thrive under the Optus Stadium lights. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions like a seasoned veteran. Bet on Baker to snag those overs and watch him split the middle with ease.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Liam Baker averaged 19.9 disposals, 0.8 goals and 3.3 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

19.9
Disposals
0.8
Goals
3.3
Marks
3.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Liam Baker recorded 16 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS16172
3 Aug 24North Melbourne21206
28 Jul 24Collingwood20034
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide21006
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS12113
6 Jul 24Fremantle12024
30 Jun 24Carlton17113
15 Jun 24Hawthorn17017
6 Jun 24Adelaide Crows24181
1 Jun 24Geelong Cats31126
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals Pending
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Liam Baker (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Liam Baker is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 23 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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