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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 74%, implied 82%, edge +4.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
AFL

Lawson Humphries

Geelong Cats

+4.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+4.9% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
87 in 100
Predicted
14.7 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 86.9% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap +4.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks86.9%74.2%82.0%1.35+4.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Lawson Humphries Over 9.5 Kicks (-455)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Lawson Humphries has been playing really well lately, showing he can get involved in the game. Our numbers think he's likely to get over 9.5 kicks, which is why I'm backing this bet. He's been taking on contests more than usual, making 0.5 contested marks when the typical is just 0.1. One thing to watch is that Fremantle and Geelong are pretty close in skill, so it might be a tough match. Still, with Humphries' recent form and how he's handling the ball, I like his chances to clear this mark. It's not a guarantee, but it looks good for him to get there!

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Pick History & Track Record

Lawson Humphries's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Kicks 9.5
How many disposals does Lawson Humphries average?

Lawson Humphries's kicks line is 9.5.

Kicks 11.5
How many disposals does Lawson Humphries average?

Lawson Humphries's kicks line is 11.5.

Disposals 13.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 7 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Lawson Humphries average?

Lawson Humphries's disposals line is 13.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 7 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 14.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 7 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Lawson Humphries average?

Lawson Humphries's disposals line is 14.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 7 of his last 10 games.

Marks 3.5
How many disposals does Lawson Humphries average?

Lawson Humphries's marks line is 3.5.

Disposals 16.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 7 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Lawson Humphries average?

Lawson Humphries's disposals line is 16.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 7 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 15.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 7 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Lawson Humphries average?

Lawson Humphries's disposals line is 15.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 7 of his last 10 games.

Season averages (2024)

Lawson Humphries averaged 17.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.9 marks per game across 11 games in 2024.

17.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.9
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Lawson Humphries has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o14.5100%
o15.580%
o17.570%
o18.570%
o20.550%
o22.530%
o23.520%
o25.510%
o26.50%
o28.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Lawson Humphries is averaging 19.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.0
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Lawson Humphries recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions18046
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide20041
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles8030
17 Aug 24St Kilda24072
10 Aug 24Fremantle16080
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows12154
27 Jul 24North Melbourne21050
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs13030
12 Jul 24Collingwood230131
6 Jul 24Hawthorn17072
Quick answers:How many disposals does Lawson Humphries average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 19.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 18.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.9% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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