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The latest Bet Better model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 60%, edge +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:07AM UTC
AFL

Koltyn Tholstrup

Melbourne

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -152 (1.66) · $100→$166
+12.1% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
17.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.4% · the book's price implies 60.2% · gap +12.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%—60.2%1.38+12.1%

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AI Analysis

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Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) Over 14.5 Disposals (-152)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

With Koltyn Tholstrup set to hit the turf at Marvel Stadium against the North Melbourne Kangaroos, the stats paint a compelling picture for an Over 14.5 disposals bet. In his last five away games, Tholstrup has been a midfield maestro, averaging 15.4 disposals, comfortably eclipsing the 14.5 line. His recent form boasts an impressive 74.3% disposal efficiency and solid averages of 11 kicks and 4.4 handballs per game. Facing North Melbourne, where he's averaged 8.5 disposals in their last encounters, Tholstrup is poised to snag this bet. With his consistency and hunger for the ball evident in his 10 hits out of the last 15 games, the numbers back Tholstrup to split the middle with this Over pick.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Koltyn Tholstrup averaged 11.7 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.4 marks per game across 10 games in 2024.

11.7
Disposals
0.5
Goals
2.4
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Koltyn Tholstrup recorded 9 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood9233
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS18145
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide13030
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs12015
21 Jul 24Fremantle6020
13 Jul 24Essendon14007
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12253
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions16002
22 Jun 24North Melbourne10057
11 Apr 24Brisbane Lions7014
Quick answers:How many disposals does Koltyn Tholstrup average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 13.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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