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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Worrell is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 62%, edge +9.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:38AM UTC
AFL

Josh Worrell

Adelaide Crows

+9.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
+9.6% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
19.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.7% · the book's price implies 62.1% · gap +9.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.7%58.6%62.1%1.71+9.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs: Josh Worrell Over 16.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Josh Worrell to get over 16.5 disposals are looking pretty good. His recent performances have shown he can handle the ball a lot. He's been grabbing contested marks at a rate of 1.5, which is way above the typical mark of 0.4. Plus, he's not giving away frees and isn't making clangers, so he should have more chances to get those disposals. The main risk here is how closely matched the teams can be. If the game turns into a tight contest, it might limit his opportunities to rack up disposals. Still, given how he's been playing lately, this bet seems worth a shot.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Season averages (2024)

Josh Worrell averaged 17.9 disposals, 0.0 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

17.9
Disposals
0.0
Goals
5.2
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Josh Worrell has cleared 13.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o13.590%
o14.580%
o16.560%
o17.560%
o19.550%
o20.540%
o22.510%
o24.510%
o25.520%
o27.520%
o28.510%
o30.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Josh Worrell is averaging 18.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

18.8
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Josh Worrell recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans15040
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide17041
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs21041
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats21032
12 May 24Brisbane Lions12012
2 May 24Port Adelaide22071
27 Apr 24North Melbourne18092
19 Apr 24Essendon21042
13 Apr 24Carlton12050
4 Apr 24Melbourne19051
Quick answers:How many disposals does Josh Worrell average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 16.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 15.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Kicks — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Worrell (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Worrell is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.6% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 5 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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