Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Dunkley is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 69%, edge +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:38AM UTC
AFL

Josh Dunkley

Brisbane Lions

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+12.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
25.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.6% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +12.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.6%—69.4%1.23+12.1%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

See his full recent form

Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) Over 20.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning machines, Josh Dunkley of the Brisbane Lions stands out as a prime candidate for hitting the Over 20.5 disposals mark against the Melbourne Demons. Over his last five away games, Dunkley has been a consistent force, averaging 18.8 disposals with a solid 63.8% disposal efficiency. His recent clash with Melbourne saw him notch an impressive 28 disposals, showcasing his ability to find the footy against this opponent. With his knack for gaining meters (145.2 avg) and strong contested possession game (8.4 avg), Dunkley is poised to make a significant impact in this matchup. Backed by his reliable performance history, including a solid 16/20 hit rate in away games, Dunkley is primed to deliver another standout performance in this crucial clash.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Josh Dunkley averaged 25.3 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.6 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

25.3
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.6
Marks
6.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Josh Dunkley has cleared 16.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o16.590%
o17.580%
o19.580%
o21.570%
o23.570%
o24.510%
o26.520%
o28.50%
o30.50%
o31.50%
o33.50%
o35.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Josh Dunkley is averaging 24.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

24.8
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Josh Dunkley recorded 21 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans210811
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats28064
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS23054
7 Sep 24Carlton15015
24 Aug 24Essendon28048
17 Aug 24Collingwood27052
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS23055
4 Aug 24St Kilda20055
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS31175
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans15016
Quick answers:How many disposals does Josh Dunkley average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Dunkley is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.