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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jayden Short is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 87 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 87%, implied 70%, edge +16.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL

Jayden Short

Richmond

+16.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+16.2% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
87 in 100
Predicted
24.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 86.6% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +16.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals86.6%70.4%1.15+16.2%

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AI Analysis

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Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 18.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals, Jayden Short stands out like a shining light piercing through the fog. The Richmond Tigers' linchpin has been on a tear lately, averaging a hefty 22.4 disposals in his last five away games. His precise kicking skills, evident through an 88.2% disposal efficiency, make him a reliable ball distributor. Short isn't just about quantity; his quality shines with an average of 386.8 meters gained per game. Facing the Adelaide Crows, against whom he boasts solid averages, Short's ability to read the play and rack up uncontested possessions should see him comfortably eclipse the 18.5 disposals line. With a recent hit streak and a hunger for the ball, Short is primed to deliver and help punters snag a win on this prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jayden Short averaged 21.9 disposals, 0.0 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

21.9
Disposals
0.0
Goals
5.0
Marks
1.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Jayden Short recorded 25 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS25063
18 Aug 24Hawthorn29050
11 Aug 24St Kilda27080
3 Aug 24North Melbourne22030
28 Jul 24Collingwood25061
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide23032
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS23041
6 Jul 24Fremantle24064
30 Jun 24Carlton16040
15 Jun 24Hawthorn25072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 15.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 20.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jayden Short (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jayden Short is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 8 August at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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