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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jason Horne-Francis is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 75%, implied 66%, edge +8.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:46AM UTC
AFL

Jason Horne-Francis

Port Adelaide

+8.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -196 (1.51) · $100→$151
+8.5% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
23.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.7% · the book's price implies 66.2% · gap +8.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.7%—66.2%1.34+8.5%

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AI Analysis

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Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Over 20.5 Disposals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit their disposals over, Jason Horne-Francis for Port Adelaide is looking like a solid bet against the Sydney Swans. Over his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 23.6 disposals, with a sharp 64.0% disposal efficiency to boot. Jason's ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 16 kicks and 7.6 handballs per game. Against the Swans specifically, he's been even more prolific, averaging 21 disposals in their past encounters. With a recent streak of hitting his disposal mark and exceeding expectations overall, backing Jason to go over 20.5 disposals is a smart play for this matchup at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jason Horne-Francis averaged 21.8 disposals, 1.1 goals and 4.4 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

21.8
Disposals
1.1
Goals
4.4
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jason Horne-Francis recorded 23 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans23041
13 Sep 24Hawthorn19141
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats18133
25 Aug 24Fremantle20222
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows23276
10 Aug 24Melbourne282133
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans27140
26 Jul 24Carlton23156
20 Jul 24Richmond18062
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS9225
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -196 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -270 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jason Horne-Francis is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.5% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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