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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jarrod Berry is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 53%, edge +18.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:38AM UTC
AFL

Jarrod Berry

Brisbane Lions

+18.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+18.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart, TAS · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
17.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.9% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +18.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.9%53.2%1.39+18.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) Under 20.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jarrod Berry heads into this clash against the Richmond Tigers with a streak of impressive performances, hitting the under on disposals in his last five games. Despite averaging 18.2 disposals in his recent away fixtures, facing the Tigers has historically limited his output to 16.5 disposals on average. Berry's recent form also shows a slight dip in uncontested possessions, a key factor in surpassing the 20.5 line. With a solid contested possessions average but facing a tough opponent in Richmond, Berry's disposals are likely to fall short of the line. Backing him to stay under 20.5 disposals at Ninja Stadium seems a prudent play, given his recent trends and historical performance against the Tigers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jarrod Berry averaged 20.0 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.2 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

20.0
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.2
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jarrod Berry has cleared 13.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o13.5100%
o14.5100%
o16.570%
o17.560%
o19.540%
o20.540%
o22.50%
o24.50%
o25.50%
o27.50%
o28.50%
o30.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jarrod Berry is averaging 19.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.8
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jarrod Berry recorded 20 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans201103
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats20024
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS27063
7 Sep 24Carlton19083
24 Aug 24Essendon16062
17 Aug 24Collingwood3020
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS22084
4 Aug 24St Kilda17071
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS240103
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans18072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 20.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jarrod Berry is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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