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The latest Bet Better model pick for James Worpel is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 71%, edge +4.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:38AM UTC
AFL

James Worpel

Geelong Cats

+4.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+4.2% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
21.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.6% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +4.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.6%—71.4%1.32+4.2%

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AI Analysis

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James Worpel (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between the Geelong Cats and the Western Bulldogs, all eyes are on James Worpel to shine on his home turf at GMHBA Stadium. Worpel's recent form is nothing short of impressive, averaging a solid 22.2 disposals in his last five home games, surpassing the 17.5 line comfortably. His ability to find space and make an impact is evident, with an average disposal efficiency of 63.8% and 10.2 handballs per game in his last five home fixtures. Against the Bulldogs, he has been even more prolific, averaging 25 disposals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 at home and a strong overall hit rate, backing Worpel to go over 17.5 disposals seems like a smart play, given his recent form and historical performance against the Bulldogs.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

James Worpel averaged 21.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.1 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

21.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.1
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), James Worpel recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide18027
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs20034
24 Aug 24North Melbourne20024
18 Aug 24Richmond29224
11 Aug 24Carlton25034
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS16013
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows20028
20 Jul 24Collingwood28101
13 Jul 24Fremantle24023
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats26147
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 21.5 Under -105 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

James Worpel (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Worpel is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.2% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats on Friday 17 April at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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