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The latest Bet Better model pick for James Harmes is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 69%, edge +1.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:44AM UTC
AFL

James Harmes

Western Bulldogs

+1.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -222 (1.45) · $100→$145
+1.3% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 12 Jun, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
17.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.3% · the book's price implies 69.0% · gap +1.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.3%—69.0%1.42+1.3%

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AI Analysis

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James Harmes (Western Bulldogs) Over 14.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

James Harmes is poised to surpass 14.5 disposals in the upcoming game against St Kilda. With a model-predicted average of 17.2 disposals, a 1.3% edge, and recent form averaging 19.4 disposals in away games, Harmes showcases consistent performance. His 70.0% disposal efficiency and strong metrics in contested possessions, kicks, and intercepts further support this bet. Facing an opponent he averages 16 disposals against, Harmes' current hit streak of 3 and overall hit rate of 3/3 indicate reliability. These factors align to suggest a high probability of exceeding the set line, making him a favorable pick for the 'Player Disposals Over' market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

James Harmes averaged 15.3 disposals, 0.8 goals and 4.1 marks per game across 9 games in 2024.

15.3
Disposals
0.8
Goals
4.1
Marks
2.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), James Harmes recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn8021
31 May 24Collingwood1010
23 May 24Sydney Swans22153
18 May 24GWS GIANTS18222
11 May 24Richmond274113
5 May 24Hawthorn21067
27 Apr 24Fremantle14021
18 Apr 24St Kilda16063
17 Mar 24Melbourne11025
6 Aug 23North Melbourne20026
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

James Harmes (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Harmes is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.3% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda Saints on Thursday 12 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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