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The latest Bet Better model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 88%, edge +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Heath Chapman

Fremantle

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -714 (1.14) · $100→$114
+1.5% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 6 Jul, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Apr 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
15.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 89.2% · the book's price implies 87.7% · gap +1.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.2%—87.7%1.12+1.5%

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AI Analysis

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Heath Chapman (Fremantle) Over 9.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Heath Chapman is poised to shine in the upcoming game based on his recent performance trends. With a model predicting him to achieve 15.7 disposals, significantly above the line of 9.5, and a small edge of 1.5%, the data supports a solid bet on him surpassing this mark. Chapman's consistent away form, averaging 15 disposals in his last five away games and hitting a 3-game hit streak, demonstrates his reliability on the road. Additionally, his strong numbers in kicks (9.6) and contested possessions (4.6) further bolster the case for him to exceed the disposals line against the Sydney Swans.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Heath Chapman averaged 16.1 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.8 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

16.1
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.8
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Heath Chapman has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.570%
o11.570%
o13.540%
o14.540%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.510%
o20.510%
o21.510%
o23.50%
o24.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Heath Chapman is averaging 14.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

14.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Heath Chapman recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide20061
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS17073
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats22091
4 Aug 24Essendon11021
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12023
21 Jul 24Melbourne12012
13 Jul 24Hawthorn19090
6 Jul 24Richmond14181
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans12041
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS16066
Quick answers:How many disposals does Heath Chapman average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Heath Chapman (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Heath Chapman is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Sunday 6 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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