Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Hayden Young is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 51 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 51%, implied 54%, edge +18.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
AFL
Hayden Young
Fremantle
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Under 20.5
-118 (1.85) · $100→$185
+18.9% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks
@
Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
73 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 73.0% · the book's price implies 54.1% · gap +18.9%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 73.0% | 51.0% | 54.1% | 1.96 | +18.9% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 0/5 |
| Last 10 games | 0/10 |
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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Hayden Young Under 20.5 Disposals (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Hayden Young has been playing well lately, but he might not reach 20.5 disposals against the Hawthorn Hawks. Our numbers show that he's been falling short in some key areas, like not contesting one-on-ones and not launching scores. These factors could limit his opportunities to rack up disposals in this game at Optus Stadium.
The Dockers and Hawks are pretty evenly matched, which makes it tougher for any player to dominate. While Young is a talented player, he could find it challenging to get the ball as much as needed. There's definitely a chance he could go under 20.5 disposals today.
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Season averages (2024)
Hayden Young averaged 23.8 disposals, 0.6 goals and 3.3 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Hayden Young has cleared 12.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o12.590%
o13.580%
o15.560%
o16.560%
o18.550%
o19.540%
o21.530%
o23.50%
o24.50%
o26.50%
o27.50%
o29.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Hayden Young is averaging 19.6 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Hayden Young recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 25 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 19 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 19 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 22 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 Aug 24 | Essendon | 27 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 27 Jul 24 | West Coast Eagles | 20 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Melbourne | 28 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 20 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Richmond | 24 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Jun 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 24 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 03 Sep 26 |
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers |
Disposals |
20.5 |
Under |
-118 |
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Hayden Young (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hayden Young is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.9% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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