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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry Dean is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 69%, implied 86%, edge +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Harry Dean

Carlton

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -625 (1.16) · $100→$116
+0.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
86 in 100
Predicted
13.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 86.3% · the book's price implies 86.2% · gap +0.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals86.3%69.3%86.2%1.44+0.1%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Harry Dean Over 9.5 Disposals (-625)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Harry Dean needs to make at least ten disposals tonight for this bet to win. He has been playing well, and the Carlton Blues get a lot of contested ball, which means he should have chances to get his hands on the footy. Plus, Carlton's strong form, having won 8 of their last 10 games, suggests they will be active in the game, giving Dean more opportunities to rack up those disposals. The biggest worry is that Geelong Cats have been even on contested ball, meaning it might be tough for Dean to stand out. Still, with Carlton's ability to win the ball, he should get enough chances to hit that target. Overall, he's been solid, and the numbers say he's likely to get those disposals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Harry Dean - AFL Disposals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -182 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Harry Dean (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry Dean is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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