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The latest Bet Better model pick for Finn Callaghan is Over 25.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 68%, edge +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Finn Callaghan

GWS GIANTS

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 25.5 -208 (1.48) · $100→$148
+4.5% Edge
Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 13°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
28.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.0% · the book's price implies 67.6% · gap +4.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.0%—67.6%1.39+4.5%

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AI Analysis

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Finn Callaghan (GWS GIANTS) Over 25.5 Disposals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Finn Callaghan is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between the Greater Western Sydney Giants and the Sydney Swans. Playing at home in ENGIE Stadium, Finn has been on a tear lately, averaging a solid 28.2 disposals over his last five home games. His recent performances showcase his ability to dominate the field, with an impressive average of 13.2 kicks and 15 handballs per game. Additionally, his disposal efficiency of 68.8% proves he's a reliable ball handler under pressure. Against the Swans, Finn has been even more prolific, averaging 26.4 disposals in their last five encounters. With a model prediction of 28.4 disposals for this game and a consistent hit rate, Finn Callaghan is poised to surpass the 25.5 disposal line comfortably. Betting on Finn to shine in the disposals department is a solid play with a high probability of success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Finn Callaghan averaged 22.9 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

22.9
Disposals
0.1
Goals
2.8
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Finn Callaghan recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Sep 24Brisbane Lions19003
7 Sep 24Sydney Swans25091
25 Aug 24Western Bulldogs26032
17 Aug 24Fremantle25020
10 Aug 24Brisbane Lions24154
4 Aug 24Hawthorn17012
27 Jul 24Melbourne36063
20 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS21024
14 Jul 24Richmond21034
6 Jul 24Carlton24033
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 25.5 Over -208 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 24.5 Over -286 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 23.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Finn Callaghan (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Finn Callaghan is Over 25.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 25 July at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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