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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ed Richards is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 61%, implied 61%, edge +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL

Ed Richards

Western Bulldogs

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+12.1% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
3.9 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.7% · the book's price implies 60.6% · gap +12.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks72.7%60.9%60.6%1.64+12.1%

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AI Analysis

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Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards Over 2.5 Marks (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Adelaide Crows really struggle to contain players like Ed Richards when he gets going. He's been showing great form, and with the Crows having trouble marking their opponents effectively, this could be a big game for him. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to grab over 2.5 marks in this match. However, the Western Bulldogs are not an easy team to predict, and they can be tricky to break down. If the game becomes a tight contest, that could limit Richards' opportunities. Still, if he finds space and gets involved early, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Ed Richards averaged 21.4 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

21.4
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.6
Marks
3.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Ed Richards recorded 23 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn23040
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS29234
18 Aug 24North Melbourne22253
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows11125
2 Aug 24Melbourne20152
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans25155
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats29256
13 Jul 24Carlton17038
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide17064
29 Jun 24North Melbourne21046
Quick answers:How many disposals does Ed Richards average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks 2.5 Over -154 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks 1.5 Over -526 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 22.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ed Richards (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ed Richards is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 5 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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