Darcy Wilson (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-147)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Darcy Wilson's away form is the key driver here. Over his last seven road trips, Wilson has cleared this line six times — an 86% hit rate that dwarfs his overall 8-from-13 mark and tells you something meaningful about how he performs when travelling. In those away games specifically, he's averaging 1.0 goal, 2.2 shots at goal and 6.4 score involvements per game, with a 38.3% goal accuracy — a far cry from his flat overall numbers and a sign the away context genuinely suits him. Against Richmond specifically, he's averaging 0.7 goals in away contests.
The model projects 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 1.4% edge over the implied 59.5% probability baked into the $1.68 price. That's not a screaming margin, but combined with that 6/7 away hit rate and the volume of shots he's generating, Wilson represents a measured, defensible play here.