Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-172)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fogarty's disposal numbers at Adelaide Oval make this line look soft. His L5 home average sits at 11.6 disposals — comfortably clear of the 9.5 mark — and he's cleared this line in all 11 of his last 11 home games, a hit rate that's hard to ignore. The model projects him for 12 disposals, generating a 9.4% edge against the implied 63.3% probability baked into the $1.58 price.
His home game breakdown reinforces the read: 8 kicks and 3.6 handballs per game, with 199.6 metres gained and 7.6 uncontested possessions suggesting he's finding clean ball regularly rather than scrapping for it in traffic. The contested possession numbers are modest at 4.2, which actually points to efficiency over volume — his 63.1% disposal efficiency at home keeps him in the game. Against the Bulldogs, he's averaged 10 disposals across five meetings. The line is beatable.