Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 53%, implied 53%, edge +19.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:36AM UTC
AFL

Daniel Rioli

Gold Coast SUNS

+19.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+19.4% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
23.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.8% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +19.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.8%52.5%53.5%1.90+19.4%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 20.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to rack up the possessions, Daniel Rioli stands out for the Gold Coast Suns as they face the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Rioli has been a consistent force in recent games, averaging 18.6 disposals away from home with a strong contested possession rate of 3.8. His disposal efficiency of 86.2% showcases his ability to make every possession count, while his average of 10.2 handballs and 8.4 kicks per game highlight his versatility on the field. Moreover, Rioli has a history of performing well against the Giants, averaging 19.3 disposals in his last five encounters with them. With a model prediction of 23.5 disposals and a 19.4% edge, Rioli is primed to surpass the 20.5 disposal mark set by the bookmakers. Backing Rioli to hit the over on disposals is a smart play given his recent form and matchup history.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Daniel Rioli averaged 23.3 disposals, 0.3 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

23.3
Disposals
0.3
Goals
4.0
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Daniel Rioli recorded 30 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS30255
18 Aug 24Hawthorn21072
11 Aug 24St Kilda360103
3 Aug 24North Melbourne20023
28 Jul 24Collingwood25061
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide28254
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS26123
6 Jul 24Fremantle26011
30 Jun 24Carlton24073
15 Jun 24Hawthorn24030
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 20.5 Over -115 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 19.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 18.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.4% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.